FRONTLINE UPDATES: JULY 2026

On June 25th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a 40-day operation with the goal of pressuring russia to the negotiating table. Though details of this operation are scarce, in recent weeks Ukraine has continued attacks on russian oil refineries and logistical targets.

As part of the 40-day operation, Ukraine hit 35 shadow fleet ships in the sea of Azov as of July 9th. Shadow fleet ships, typically oil tankers, are used by russia to circumvent trade restrictions and smuggle oil and other supplies across the oceans, but in this case they were used to avoid the logistics lockdown on fueling military operations from the occupied Crimea to southern Ukraine. The success of these attacks will further limit russia’s ability to fuel its war machine in the south of our country.

russia Feels the Tolls of War

With virtually every major russian oil refinery having been struck by Ukrainian “long-range sanctions,” the russian energy crisis is approaching a critical state. Fuel shortages have led to mandatory fuel rationing, multi-day queues to purchase fuel, and suspensions of state services. There are also reports that increasing energy prices and disruptions in russian oil exports are beginning to have economic consequences severe enough to be felt by russian civilians.

A recent poll found that 81% of russians support an immediate end to the war, amounting to the lowest level of war support recorded since 2022. Though polling in russia is notoriously unreliable, the shift from previous benchmarks (72-75% in prior polls) does give some indication of russia’s declining will to continue its war of aggression at such high costs, both in human life and economically.

Still, we should be cautious with our optimism. Unlike democratic nations, which are by design receptive to the wills and wants of the people (think: the impact of protests during the Vietnam War), authoritarian nations like russia enjoy the ability to ignore and suppress domestic dissent.

Ukrainian Civilians Targeted by russian Ballistic Missiles

In the words of Zelensky, "putin is losing this war. That's what's happening. He understands that the only thing he can do is intimidate people and simply kill civilians with missile strikes."

While Ukraine has demonstrated great effectiveness in defending itself from conventional cruise missiles and drone strikes, it does not have an answer for russian ballistic missiles, which continue to find civilian targets. Recently, on the night of July 2, a barrage of 28 ballistic missiles found targets in Kyiv, killing 31 and injuring more than 100 others.

Zelensky reiterated the urgency for Ukraine’s allies to deliver previously promised interceptors, which could have saved lives and prevented some of the destruction. With no reprieve to the interceptor shortage in sight, russian ballistic strikes will continue to prove catastrophic to the Ukrainian people.

Ukraine to Domestically Produce Patriot Missiles

Early in July, the U.S. administration greenlit Ukraine to produce its own Patriot missiles. This is good news, as Patriot missiles are one of the few tools Ukraine has to protect itself from russian ballistic strikes being used against civilian targets, including apartment buildings and hospitals. Ukraine has effectively run out of Patriot missiles, leaving itself more or less defenseless to such attacks.

Unfortunately, it will likely take at least a few years for Ukraine to begin production, as the development of these advanced missile systems is complex and expensive. In the meantime, Ukraine will be looking to work with its western allies for alternatives to Patriots to defend against russian ballistic attacks.

Sources

1. KyivIndependent.com, June 25, 2026

2. KyivPost.com, July 9, 2026

3. KyivIndependent.com, July 8, 2026

4. Reteurs.com, July 10, 2026

5. KyivPost.com, July 4, 2026

6. KyivIndependent.com, July 8, 2026

7. KyivIndependent.com, July 1, 2026